Supply Gaps and Emerging Opportunity

Rent growth performance varies across multifamily segments over the economic cycle. In 2021 and 2022, Class A properties experienced significant stimulus-driven rental demand; this discretionary segment of multifamily peaked at 17% rent growth in January 2022. However, an influx of new supply began delivering in the second half of 2023 and rent growth for the discretionary segment of the multifamily market is 0.1% as of September 2024. Meanwhile, workforce housing peaked at 11% rent growth in May 2022 and currently leads all multifamily segments with 2.5-2.8% rent growth in September 2024.

Multifamily construction starts in 2024 are on track to hit their lowest level since 2013. Year-to-date through October 2024, construction completions have exceeded construction starts by 218,500 units. Historically, this level of disparity between starts and completions has only occurred once before, in 1974.

NPRC believes this disparity signals a looming multifamily supply deficit in 2026 and 2027. Because multifamily properties generally cannot be built at a cost that supports targeted development-stage returns if renting at workforce housing rates, NPRC believes the workforce segment of the market will continue to experience a supply/demand imbalance with countercyclical resilience and earnings growth.

In the context of this supply/demand imbalance, many multifamily properties financed during the 2020-2022 boom are facing significant capitalization challenges today having nothing to do with the condition and operations of the underlying properties. NPRC believes that higher interest rates and concentrated deliveries have created an opportunity for today’s investors to acquire or provide innovative financing solutions needed by many multifamily borrowers.

Sources: Yardi Matrix, Madera Residential Research, U.S. Census Bureau.

Disclosures

Not an Offer or Solicitation: This is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation to purchase or sell any financial instrument or service to any person in any jurisdiction. This is not intended to be construed as investment advice, an investment recommendation, investment research, or a recommendation about the suitability or appropriateness of any security, commodity, investment, or particular investment strategy. Reliance upon this information is at the sole discretion of the listener and the listener should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses of any investment carefully before making it. This is intended to be shared as National Property REIT Corp. (“NPRC” or “We”) brand awareness and illustrate NPRC’s role in owning and operating real estate in the market segments discussed herein.

Unless otherwise mentioned, the views, opinions and/or beliefs contained herein are those of NPRC employees. Other past or present NPRC employees, or other past or present employees of NPRC’s affiliates, may not necessarily share the same views, opinions and/or beliefs of present NPRC employees, and may not make, or may not have made, the same decisions regarding the ownership, operation and financing of real estate in the market segments discussed in herein. These views, opinions, beliefs, estimates and projections are made in relation to the facts known at the time of preparation and are subject to change at any time without notice. DO NOT RELY ON ANY OPINIONS, BELIEFS, PREDICTIONS OR FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS CONTAINED HEREIN. Certain statements made throughout this information may be “forward-looking” in nature. Forward-looking statements may be identified by the use of terminology including, but not limited to, “may,” “will,” “should,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “target,” “project,” “estimate,” “intend,” “continue” or “believe” or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Due to various risks and uncertainties, actual events or results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking information. As such, undue reliance should not be placed on such statements. There can be no assurance that any trends discussed during this presentation will continue and neither NPRC nor any of its affiliates has any responsibility to update this presentation to account for such changes. Certain information contained herein may have been obtained from third party sources. Although NPRC believes such sources to be reliable, NPRC makes no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the accuracy, reasonableness, or completeness of any of the statements made during this presentation, including, but not limited to, statements obtained from third parties.

A number of factors may prevent each of NPRC’s properties from generating sufficient net cash flow or may adversely affect their value, or both. These factors include, but are not limited to, national economic conditions, regional and local economic conditions (which may be adversely impacted by plant closings, business layoffs, industry slow-downs, weather conditions, natural disasters, and other factors), local real estate conditions (such as over-supply of or insufficient demand), changing demographics, perceptions by prospective tenants of the convenience, services, safety, and attractiveness of a property, the ability of property managers to provide capable management and adequate maintenance, the quality of a property’s construction and design, increases in costs of maintenance, insurance, and operations (including energy costs and real estate taxes), changes in applicable laws or regulations (including tax laws, zoning laws, or building codes), potential environmental and other legal liabilities, the level of financing used by NPRC in respect of its properties, increases in interest rate levels on such financings and the risk that NPRC will default on such financings, each of which increases the risk of loss, the availability and cost of refinancing, the ability to find suitable tenants for a property and to replace any departing tenants with new tenants, potential instability, default or bankruptcy of tenants in the properties owned by NPRC, potential limited number of prospective buyers interested in purchasing a property that NPRC wishes to sell, and the relative illiquidity of real estate investments in general, which may make it difficult to sell a property at an attractive price or within a reasonable time frame.

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